The basics:
McCain: MT, ND, MO, IN, AZ AR, GA No question for me
PA, NC, FL 99% sure
NV, CO, OH, NH, VA are the less certain
I would not be surprised by NM or ME going for McCain.
Why? The soft support for Obama has been moving to the undecided column. Enough questions have been put out there to push them over to McCain. The second part is at least some complacence in the Obama camp and the traditional and soft conservatives are pissed. Less turnout among the youth vote as evident by the early voting and some complacently on the Obama side. The McCain voters are coming out in larger numbers over Wright, Ayers, guns, Marxism. Those moving away from Obama will support McCain on the redistribution and socialism charges.
There is a urban Vs. suburb element. I am in MO in St. Charles just outside St. Louis. I know very well people in the suburbs of were raised there that now work or live in the city. They are generally pissed day in and day out at the mess that is that city and blame the seeming unwillingness of those in that city to pull themselves out of it.
As a secondhand example( i pay as little attention to that place as I can) Larry Rice run a shelter and soup kitchen in the city. A generally well liked guy and is on public access from time to time. He will pay bills for those on supposedly hard times. My understanding is that he also offers them things like plastic and caulk for windows to keep out the cold and lower the bill. They will not even be respectful take the stuff and say they will, they flat out refuse but will take the money. So when someone even mentions taking their money to give it to those type of people, those who will not take five minutes to save a little money, they go off the deep end and you get those that generally don't care go out and vote.
The election will be decided in the suburbs and in the end they will move more than enough to push many states (MO, IN, PA, NC, FL, CO, OH, VA) in to the McCain camp.
In general if Obama is at 51-52% he loses that state. 1% bleed from Obama to third parties and 2-3% bleed to thoughts over the kind of amazing number of poorly or un-answered questions and the slips of lowering the point at which the taxes are raised.
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